September 17, 2008

More than 50% want the Conservatives

Ipsos-MORI has an absolutely astonishing result in their latest poll: Lib-Dem 12%, Labour 24%, Conservative 52%. It has to be an outlier but even so this is an amazing result. Using the UK Polling Report swing calculator that gives a massive 481 seats to the Conservatives with Labour and the Lib-Dems picking up 129 and 13, which is unlucky for quite a few Lib-Dem MPs. One of the reasons that I had expected the Lib-Dems to be able to do well in the next election, and possibly eclipse Labour, was because I could not believe that even when Labour reached their lowest point (which has still to come) that anybody could get over 50% of the vote. This placed a limit on the number of votes the Tories could get meaning that they would almost certainly flow to the Liberal Democrats as a way of voting against Labour without voting for the Conservatives. It looks like I was wrong.

I still think that they should be talking about their traditional policies, these are perfect for picking up centre-left ex-Labour voters (and there are going to be a lot about) since on just about every centre-left touchstone the Lib-Dems have been much close to the mark than Labour have for years. It is also more likely to be believed than the road to Damascus conversion to tax cutting and a smaller state that they are currently talking about.


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